Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s highest temperature on 10 July 2026 at William P. Hobby Airport is the real-world event this contract tracks, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance for any outcome above the lowest range. On Polymarket, traders are using USDC on Polygon to buy conditional tokens representing specific Fahrenheit bands, yet the zero probability on the YES side suggests the crowd expects the day to stay cool or the market to be illiquid ahead of the 2026 settlement window.

Historically, 10 July in Houston has seen extreme heat, including a record 105°F on 10 July 2022, while typical July highs range from 92°F to 95°F, rarely dropping below 87°F or exceeding 100°F[2][4]. The current 0% implied probability clashes with this pattern, implying either a data anomaly, a mispriced outlier, or that the market has not yet absorbed historical climatology. Traders should compare this against similar July 10 contracts on Polymarket, where frontrunners often cluster around 86–89°F for mid-July dates[1].

Key catalysts include the official release of Weather Underground’s historical data for KHOU on 11 July 2026, which will trigger resolution, and any sudden shifts in regional forecasts from the National Weather Service ahead of the date[3]. Since the settlement depends solely on the final daily high displayed in Wunderground’s summary table, traders must monitor real-time updates from the Houston Chronicle’s weather team, which recently highlighted triple-digit heat indexes and sustained 98°F highs in early July 2026[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.