Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26?

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Market context

On 26 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. That figure—once finalised in the Observatory's Daily Extract dataset—determines which temperature band this contract resolves into. Polymarket currently prices all outcome ranges at 0%, reflecting the market's inability to settle until official data arrives after the settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date. The contract sits dormant until the Observatory publishes its definitive reading, at which point conditional tokens on Polygon will execute based on the actual high recorded at the Observatory's monitoring station.

Hong Kong's May temperatures cluster predictably within a narrow band. Historical data from the Observatory shows May highs typically range between 28°C and 32°C, with extremes rarely breaching 34°C. The 0% pricing across all ranges reflects pure temporal uncertainty rather than meteorological surprise—traders cannot price conviction into outcomes that depend entirely on data not yet collected. Comparable May days from recent years provide the only meaningful anchor; the Observatory's climate records show May averages have remained stable across the past decade, suggesting the eventual settlement will likely fall within established seasonal norms rather than produce an anomalous reading.

The critical dependency is the Observatory's publication schedule. The organisation typically finalises daily climate data within 48 hours of observation, meaning traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory website from 27–28 May for the Daily Extract release. Typhoon season officially begins in June, so late May typically sits in a meteorologically stable window. No scheduled weather events or atmospheric disruptions are forecast for that specific date, making the eventual outcome a straightforward reading of ordinary seasonal conditions rather than a response to exceptional circumstances.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.