Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polymarket, reflecting the settlement window's closure at 12:00 UTC that day—a hard deadline that leaves no room for late data releases. Traders holding conditional tokens pegged to USDC on Polygon will need the Observatory's "Absolute Daily Max" figure finalised in its Daily Extract before any resolution occurs, making timing and data availability the primary technical constraints rather than weather forecasting itself.

Hong Kong's May temperatures historically cluster between 28–32°C as the city transitions into summer monsoon season. The 25th falls within the pre-summer window when daily highs typically range from 29–31°C under normal conditions, though heat waves can push readings above 33°C. The Observatory's historical records show May extremes reaching 35.9°C (in 1990), but such outliers remain statistically rare. Current market pricing at 0% across all ranges suggests either insufficient liquidity, late-stage contract mechanics, or trader consensus that the settlement deadline creates execution risk outweighing weather uncertainty.

The key dependency is the Observatory's publication schedule for finalised daily data. The institution typically releases preliminary readings same-day but may delay final "Absolute Daily Max" figures by 24–48 hours pending quality assurance. Any delays beyond the 12:00 UTC settlement window would prevent resolution entirely. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website directly rather than relying on third-party weather forecasts, as only their official Daily Extract constitutes valid settlement evidence.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.