Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 23 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polymarket, reflecting settlement uncertainty rather than meteorological impossibility—the contract cannot resolve until official data from the Observatory's Daily Extract becomes available, which typically occurs days after the observation date. Traders holding conditional tokens (YES or NO) on Polygon are effectively wagering on both the actual weather outcome and the timeliness of data publication.

Hong Kong's May temperatures cluster between 28°C and 32°C based on thirty-year averages, with extremes ranging from 24°C to 36°C. The 0% crowd pricing suggests either minimal liquidity or traders deferring positions until closer to the settlement window. Historical May heat waves—such as the 35.9°C recorded in May 2015—remain outliers. Current pricing does not yet reflect typical late-spring warming patterns or any specific meteorological forecast for that date.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlooks and any tropical cyclone activity in the weeks preceding late May, as such systems can suppress or elevate temperatures significantly. The Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries with finalised daily maxima roughly two weeks after month-end, meaning resolution data should be available by early June 2026. USDC settlement on Polygon will depend entirely on that official publication; any delays in the Observatory's data release would postpone contract resolution accordingly.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 23? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.