Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius. Polymarket currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability, reflecting either sparse liquidity or settlement uncertainty rather than meteorological consensus. The contract resolves to whichever range contains the absolute daily maximum reported by the Observatory's official "Daily Extract" dataset, measured to one decimal place. Resolution depends entirely on the Observatory publishing finalised data; until that occurs, the market cannot settle despite the window closing at 12:00 UTC on the specified date.

Hong Kong's June climate sits firmly within the pre-monsoon season, when daily maxima typically range between 29°C and 33°C. Historical data from the Observatory shows June averages around 31–32°C, with extreme highs occasionally reaching 34–35°C during particularly hot spells. The 0% pricing across all ranges suggests traders are either absent from this specific contract or waiting for clearer range definitions before committing capital on Polygon. Comparable June markets in previous years have seen modest trading volumes, with outcomes clustering in the 31–33°C band roughly 70% of the time.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any published advisories regarding early-summer heat waves. The South China Morning Post and local meteorological bulletins typically flag significant temperature anomalies weeks in advance. Settlement hinges on the Observatory's publication schedule; delays in releasing the "Daily Extract" data could postpone resolution beyond the window close, creating operational friction for conditional token holders on Polygon.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.