Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all outcome ranges at 0% probability on Polymarket, suggesting either a technical settlement delay or minimal liquidity in conditional tokens on Polygon. Traders holding USDC can enter positions across temperature bands once the market becomes active, with payouts determined by which range contains the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract.

Hong Kong's June weather sits at the threshold between late spring and early monsoon onset. Historical data shows early June maxima typically range from 28–32°C, though the territory occasionally experiences anomalous heat ahead of the southwest monsoon. The 2015 heatwave pushed June temperatures above 35°C in isolated instances; conversely, cooler years with active low-pressure systems have seen maxima settle around 26–27°C. Current crowd pricing of 0% across all bands suggests either the market awaits settlement data publication or reflects genuine uncertainty about which temperature bracket will resolve.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late May and early June, as these directly influence temperature outcomes. The Observatory publishes its Daily Extract typically within 48 hours of the observation date, though official finalisation can extend beyond the settlement window close. Any significant weather system—including monsoon onset acceleration or a passing tropical depression—would materially shift expected temperature ranges and create trading opportunities as conditional token prices adjust.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.