Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 June 2026, Hong Kong will experience its peak daily heat, recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory as the absolute maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. This real-world event determines the resolution of a Polymarket contract priced today at 0% YES, implying the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the highest range offered. The on-chain mechanics utilise USDC on Polygon, where conditional tokens lock liquidity until the Observatory finalises its "Daily Extract" data, a dependency that prevents settlement until the official "Absolute Daily Max" is published.

Historical June data frames this near-zero probability as a reflection of typical seasonal behaviour rather than an anomaly. Long-term averages show daytime maximums hovering around 30°C, with recent forecasts for June 2026 indicating above-normal temperatures but still within standard ranges of 30°C to 33°C [2][5]. A comparable market for 22 June 2026 resolved at 33°C, suggesting that while heatwaves occur, the specific threshold for the "highest" range in this contract remains statistically unlikely given the current 0% pricing [1].

Traders must monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s official weather outlook announcements and the release schedule for the Daily Extract, as these are the sole catalysts for resolution. The Observatory has already shared a 2026 outlook bracing for a heatwave this week with temperatures expected to hit 33°C, a detail that could shift probabilities if the 26 June reading exceeds this threshold [7]. Until the "Absolute Daily Max" is finalized in the relevant climate database, the contract remains inactive, making the timing of the data publication the critical dependency for any on-chain settlement [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.