Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 25?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory has issued a Very Hot Weather Warning for 25 June 2026, forecasting extreme heat with temperatures in the New Territories expected to reach 37°C, while the city’s daily highs typically range between 33°C and 34°C in mid-June. On Polymarket, this June 25 temperature-range contract currently trades at 0% probability for the “YES” outcome, reflecting the crowd’s conviction that the recorded maximum will not fall within the specific range being bet on, despite the official heat alert.

Historically, Hong Kong’s June maxima have consistently hovered around 33–34°C, with the 2026 seasonal forecast predicting above-normal temperatures and normal to below-normal rainfall, which aligns with the current heat warning and supports the 0% pricing for outlier ranges. In comparable years, such as 2023 and 2024, the Observatory’s “Absolute Daily Max” rarely exceeded 35°C unless under rare typhoon-induced pressure anomalies, making the current market stance a rational read of typical seasonal behaviour.

Traders should monitor the Observatory’s final “Daily Extract” publication, scheduled shortly after 12:00 UTC on 25 June, as this is the definitive resolution source for the conditional token settlement in USDC on Polygon. The immediate catalyst is the Very Hot Weather Warning issued today, which the Observatory explicitly linked to temperatures hitting 37°C in the New Territories, a detail confirmed in their official press release [8]. Until the Daily Extract is finalized, the market remains locked, and no USDC can be redeemed for the conditional tokens.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.