Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 24?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on 24 June 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the Hong Kong Observatory serving as the definitive resolution source. Currently, Polymarket prices the YES contract at 0%, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being wagered on. This on-chain pricing, settled in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, reflects a stark divergence from historical June heat patterns, suggesting traders are betting against the upper threshold of the market’s resolution bands.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability as an outlier rather than a certainty. June in Hong Kong typically sees daily highs between 34°C and 36°C, with the 2025 record reaching 35.6°C for the month[6]. The seasonal forecast for June–August 2026 explicitly predicts above-normal temperatures, with a high chance of the year ranking among the warmest top 10 on record[1][7]. Recent extreme heat warnings have already pushed New Territories temperatures to 37°C, and the hottest day of 2026 so far hit 34.6°C[3][5]. Given these trends, a 0% YES probability appears to ignore the strong likelihood of record-breaking heat.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily extract releases and any official extreme heat announcements scheduled for late June. The resolution depends entirely on the finalized "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" once published in the Daily Extract, which may lag by several days[1]. Recent news confirms the Observatory has issued warnings for extreme heat on upcoming days, indicating active monitoring of rising temperatures[3]. With the settlement window ending on 24 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC, the market remains contingent on real-time observational data rather than abstract forecasts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.