Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 16?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the daily maximum temperature on 16 June 2026, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. Polymarket currently prices all temperature ranges at 0%, reflecting the contract's distance from settlement and the absence of forward-looking meteorological consensus this far ahead. Once the Observatory publishes its "Absolute Daily Max" figure in the Daily Extract dataset, the market will resolve to whichever bracket contains that single recorded value. Until that data appears on the Observatory's climate portal, the contract cannot settle.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong show considerable variability. The territory's June average daily maximum sits around 31–32°C, but extremes have ranged from lows near 26°C to highs exceeding 35°C depending on monsoon patterns and tropical weather systems. The 2015 heatwave pushed June maxima above 36°C on several days; conversely, wet monsoon years have kept peaks closer to 29–30°C. These precedents suggest the eventual settlement figure will likely fall within a 26–37°C band, though the specific date remains meteorologically unpredictable eighteen months in advance.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts as June 2026 approaches, particularly advisories issued in May regarding monsoon onset timing and tropical cyclone activity. The El Niño Southern Oscillation phase and Indian Ocean temperatures in early 2026 will influence regional pressure patterns. No scheduled events or policy announcements directly affect this measurement, but the Observatory's historical accuracy and consistent methodology mean the eventual published figure will be definitive for settlement purposes on Polygon.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.