Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily maximum for 31 July 2026 at **0% YES**, so the contract currently implies no confidence in any bucket outcome tied to today’s final reading. The market settles in **USDC on Polygon** through conditional tokens, but it cannot resolve until the Observatory publishes the finalized **“Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)”** in the relevant Daily Extract, which is the sole source of truth for this event.[3][16]

The historical frame is straightforward: Hong Kong’s late-July climate is usually hot and humid, with average highs around the low 30s Celsius, but the city can still print much higher extremes during strong heat episodes. The Observatory’s July ranking shows record monthly maximum temperatures above **35°C**, and in July 2023 the maximum at the Observatory reached **36.1°C**, underlining that the top end can move well beyond the seasonal norm.[3][8] For a bucketed market, the useful comparison is not the average day but whether a late-afternoon spike pushes the official station reading into a higher range than the crowd is expecting.[7][14]

Traders should watch the Observatory’s hourly and final daily reports, because the contract hinges on the published station maximum rather than app-based forecasts or citywide highs. On settlement day, the key dependency is whether the Daily Extract is posted after the close of observations and whether any late update revises the official maximum; recent Observatory releases show midday readings can already be in the low 30s across Hong Kong, with some New Territories sites running hotter than the city centre.[7][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.