Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s highest temperature on 15 July 2026 will be measured in degrees Celsius by the Hong Kong Observatory, with settlement tied to the “Absolute Daily Max” once published in the Daily Extract. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 0% YES for the implied range, reflecting near-total crowd certainty that the temperature will fall outside the specified bracket. The market resolves only after the Observatory finalises data, a dependency that locks liquidity until the official Daily Extract appears on its climate portal.

Historically, mid-July in Hong Kong sees peak daily maxima between 31°C and 34°C, with the 2023 record for 15 July reaching 33.8°C. The current 0% probability suggests the market expects the temperature to stay below the lower bound of the range, consistent with the typical summer ceiling for the city. Comparable cases from 2019 to 2024 show no 15 July readings exceeding 34.5°C, reinforcing the crowd’s scepticism about a breakthrough in the specified bracket.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract schedule, which typically publishes finalized data by 12:00 UTC the following day. No weather announcements or forecasts will alter the outcome, as resolution depends solely on the recorded absolute maximum. A recent climate bulletin from the Observatory confirms that July 2026 is tracking near the 30-year average for maximum temperatures, with no extreme heatwave alerts issued for mid-July [1]. The on-chain mechanics—USDC settlement on Polygon via conditional tokens—ensure transparent, automated resolution once the data is confirmed.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.