Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 July 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all outcome ranges at 0%, reflecting that settlement data has not yet been published and the event lies eighteen months ahead. Once the Observatory publishes its "Absolute Daily Max" figure in the Daily Extract, the contract will resolve to whichever temperature band contains that single recorded value, with conditional tokens on Polygon converting to USDC according to the outcome.

Hong Kong's July temperatures are remarkably consistent year-on-year. Historical data from the Observatory shows July daily maxima typically range between 31°C and 34°C, with extreme heat occasionally pushing toward 35°C or beyond during particularly intense heat waves. The 1967 record of 36.3°C remains the highest July temperature on record; more recent decades show the city rarely exceeds 35°C in this month, though the 2015 heat wave did reach 35.8°C on 9 July. This historical clustering means outcome ranges centred on 32–34°C should anchor trader expectations, with lower and higher bands representing genuine but less probable scenarios.

The primary catalyst for traders is the Hong Kong Observatory's publication schedule. Temperature data typically appears in the Daily Extract within 24–48 hours of the observation date, though formal finalisation can take longer during periods of data verification. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website directly rather than relying on secondary sources, as the resolution criteria explicitly reference their published figures. Seasonal forecasting models from meteorological agencies become more reliable as summer 2026 approaches, offering incremental information for position-building in the months preceding the event.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.