Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong is currently experiencing sunny conditions with the Hong Kong Observatory reporting a maximum temperature of 35°C for 12 July 2026, yet the Polymarket contract for the highest temperature on this date shows a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome. This stark divergence suggests the market is pricing in a specific resolution failure or a data discrepancy, as the on-chain conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, reflect a collective view that the event will not resolve within the defined parameters despite the live weather reading.

Historical July data frames this anomaly, with AccuWeather noting average highs between 28°C and 32°C, while the HKO’s seasonal forecast for July–September 2026 predicts normal to above-normal temperatures [3][4]. The current 35°C reading aligns with the upper bound of typical summer extremes, yet the 0% market price contradicts the frontrunner outcome of 34°C seen in similar contracts, where traders previously assigned a 50% probability to that range [1]. This suggests the current pricing may be an artefact of the settlement window ending precisely at 12:00 UTC, potentially before the official "Daily Extract" is finalized.

Traders must monitor the release schedule of the HKO’s "Daily Extract" for the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" to confirm if the 35°C reading will be officially recorded [1]. The market cannot resolve until this data is published, creating a dependency on the HKO’s administrative timeline rather than the atmospheric event itself [1]. With the official forecast for the following day projecting a lower 32°C maximum, the immediate catalyst is the confirmation of today’s finalized data point, which will determine if the 0% probability corrects to reflect the observed 35°C peak [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.