Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, Hong Kong will record its highest daily temperature, a figure that will determine the outcome of a Polymarket contract priced at zero per cent for the “YES” side today. This on-chain prediction, settled in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, reflects the market’s current view that the temperature will not fall into the specific range being wagered upon, despite July being historically the hottest month in the city.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability with stark clarity: July 2022 was the hottest month in Hong Kong since records began in 1884, surpassing the previous peak set in July 2020[1]. The highest monthly maximum temperature recorded in July between 1885 and 2019 reached 35.7°C[2], while current forecasts for July 2026 suggest daily highs between 30°C and 34°C (86°F to 93°F)[3]. Recent observations confirm temperatures have hovered around 33°C (91.6°F) in late June 2026, with a dip to 25.7°C (78.2°F) on 6 July[4].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s upcoming “Daily Extract” publication, which finalises the “Absolute Daily Max” data for 10 July[7]. The settlement depends entirely on this official release, as the market cannot resolve until the data is published[10]. No immediate weather announcements are expected, but the observatory’s routine climatological updates, such as those highlighting July 2018’s mean maximum of 31.8°C, provide context for typical variability[7]. The key catalyst remains the timely confirmation of the official figure, which will either validate or overturn the current zero-percent pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.