Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract priced at **0% YES**, which means the market is currently treating a temperature at the listed target range as an outside outcome rather than a live contender. On Polymarket, the position settles in **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens, so the key question is not the weather in general but the exact **Hong Kong Observatory absolute daily maximum in Celsius** that will be published for the day’s final extract.

For context, Hong Kong’s August climate is hot and humid, with the Observatory’s 1991–2020 normal for 8 August showing a mean maximum of **31.7°C**[1]. The city has, however, produced much higher readings in past August heat events: the Hong Kong Observatory reported **36.3°C** on 8 August 2015, then a record for the station, while noting several other locations also reached **36°C or above**[3]. More broadly, third-party historical data for early August usually cluster in the low 30s, which means the market’s current zero price is only sensible if traders think today’s final published maximum will stay well below the contract’s upper bands[2][11].

The main catalysts are procedural rather than dramatic: the contract cannot resolve until the Hong Kong Observatory posts the finalized **Daily Extract**, and intraday readings are not enough if the official daily maximum is later revised or published after the settlement window[7]. Traders should watch the Observatory’s day-of weather updates and any signs of a clear, hot, low-cloud pattern, because those conditions are the usual route to a spike in the maximum temperature; the Observatory’s own regional weather pages are the relevant source for that progression[5][16].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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