Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Hong Kong temperature contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is assigning no probability to the HKO’s 1 August 2026 daily maximum landing in the chosen temperature band. In practical terms, traders are holding USDC on Polygon against conditional tokens that settle only after the Hong Kong Observatory publishes the final “Absolute Daily Max” for the date, so the key question is not whether Hong Kong will be hot, but whether the recorded peak fits the contract’s exact Celsius range once the daily extract is finalised.[14]

The historical frame is straightforward: Hong Kong’s early-August climate normally sits around **31.6°C** for the mean maximum on 1 August, with August broadly averaging **31°C** highs and humid, storm-prone conditions.[1][3] Recent summers have also been notably warm. The Hong Kong Observatory described August 2024 as “an exceptionally hot August”, with a mean daily maximum of **32.3°C**, while government reporting on 2023 noted the hottest August on record for mean temperature.[6][5] That history suggests the market is really about where the day’s top reading lands, not whether the city will see summer heat at all.[1][6]

Traders should watch the Observatory’s daily extraction timetable and any late updates to the climatology page, because this market cannot resolve until the relevant daily data is published and finalised.[14] The contract is settled from the HKO’s official record rather than live forecasts, so intraday temperature spikes, typhoon-related cloud cover, or a late-afternoon shower only matter if they change the final recorded maximum.[4][14] The main dependency is therefore the HKO publication sequence itself, not an external forecast model or exchange-traded weather feed.[14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.