Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 27 June 2026, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance for any outcome below 33°C. On Polymarket, this contract sits on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, where conditional tokens reflect a near-certain consensus that temperatures will exceed 33°C, mirroring the 100% probability assigned to 33°C for the 26 June event and 35°C for 25 June [1][3].

Historical data frames this probability as rational, given that June is one of Guangzhou’s wettest and hottest months, with an average rainfall of 280 mm and a record high of 36.6°C driven by subtropical high-pressure systems [2]. Daily highs in June typically range from 27°C to 33°C, often climbing to 33°C by afternoon, while the hot season persists from May to October with average highs above 86°F [2][9]. The 0% probability for lower ranges aligns with the consistent pattern of temperatures exceeding 33°C in recent days, as seen in the 100% market confidence for 35°C on 25 June [3].

Traders should monitor announcements regarding typhoon activity and heavy storm schedules, as typhoons may occur in June and could temporarily disrupt temperature trends [2]. Recent forecasts for June 2026 indicate daily highs between 87°F and 91°F (30.6°C–32.8°C), with overnight lows of 78°F–81°F, suggesting temperatures will likely remain in the 32°C–33°C range [4]. Dependencies include real-time Wunderground data updates for the Baiyun station, which will determine the final resolution, and any sudden shifts in subtropical pressure that could alter the expected heat intensity [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.