Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical July averages in Guangzhou hover near 32°C, with urban heat-island effects and variable humidity keeping the distribution tight around this range[1]. Early July typically sees daily highs clustered between 31°C and 34°C, based on China Meteorological Administration station records[8]. Climate data indicates that 9 July often features thunderstorms with heavy rain and an average high of 31°C, though 10 July can reach 34°C under fewer clouds[2]. The current Polymarket contract prices the 33°C outcome at 40% and 34°C or higher at another 40%, suggesting the market expects temperatures to exceed the 0% YES threshold implied by the current frontrunner[1].

Traders should monitor the daily weather schedule for the Pearl River Delta, particularly announcements regarding thunderstorm activity and humidity levels that could suppress peak temperatures[8]. A key dependency is the real-time data feed from Wunderground, which resolves the market using the highest temperature recorded for all times on that day at the airport station[1]. Recent reports from the China Meteorological Administration note that July 2026 saw an average temperature of 23.2°C, the highest since 1961, indicating a trend toward warmer conditions that may influence the 9 July outcome[5]. On-chain mechanics on Polygon, using USDC and conditional tokens, mean liquidity shifts rapidly as these weather forecasts update, requiring close attention to the settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 9 July 2026[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.