Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the peak temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 7 July 2026, a date that historically sits within the city’s most intense heatwave period. In July, daytime highs typically range from 34 to 37°C, with extremes often surpassing 38°C, and the all-time record for the month reaching approximately 39°C[1][4]. Given that current crowd-implied probability for the “YES” outcome is 0%, the market appears to be pricing in a scenario where the temperature falls below the specific threshold required for resolution, despite July being Guangzhou’s hottest month on average[2][6].

Traders should monitor official weather bulletins from the Guangdong Meteorological Bureau and real-time updates from Wunderground, which serves as the settlement source for this contract[1]. Recent reports indicate Guangzhou experienced prolonged sunny spells in May 2026, with temperatures climbing to 36.3°C, marking it as the hottest May in the city’s history[5]. While July usually brings more cloud cover and rain, any deviation toward sustained clear skies could drive temperatures toward the upper historical limits, making daily forecasts and humidity indices critical catalysts to watch as the settlement window approaches[3][8].

On Polymarket, this contract is priced using USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens reflect the 0% probability of the temperature exceeding the defined range. The on-chain mechanics allow users to buy or sell shares based on evolving weather data, with the market resolving once Wunderground publishes the official daily maximum[1]. As the settlement deadline nears 2026-07-07T12:00:00Z, liquidity may shift in response to forecast updates, particularly if models predict a heat spike consistent with July’s historical extremes[4][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.