Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport is expected to fall within the 30°C range, as current forecast models indicate a peak of 30°C with a low of 8°C for that day[1]. This prediction market, priced at 0% YES on Polymarket today, reflects a crowd-implied belief that the temperature will not exceed the upper threshold of the defined range, despite Guangzhou’s reputation for extreme summer heat. The contract settles on USDC via Polygon using conditional tokens, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 6 July 2026.

Historically, July is Guangzhou’s hottest month, with daily highs averaging 33°C (91°F) and rarely dipping below 28°C or exceeding 36°C (96.8°F)[2][5]. Recent visitor reports describe “insane heat” with temperatures consistently over 30°C, even indoors[6]. The 0% YES price appears inconsistent with this pattern, suggesting either a mispricing or an unusually narrow range definition that excludes typical July peaks. Comparable data from AccuWeather for July 2026 forecasts highs between 86°F and 96°F (30°C–36°C), reinforcing the likelihood of temperatures well above 30°C[3].

Traders should monitor official weather bulletins from the China Meteorological Administration and real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source[7]. Any sudden shifts in monsoon activity or cloud cover could alter the peak temperature, though July typically features persistent torrid conditions with downpours common in June but less so in July[4]. A recent Xinhua report noted Guangzhou experienced its longest summer since 1961, with record summer days, further supporting the expectation of sustained high temperatures[8]. These dependencies are critical for assessing the validity of the current 0% YES pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.