Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with recent forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office pointing to a maximum near 31°C in Guangzhou[1]. The market currently prices the "30°C" range at 39% and "31°C" at 33%, while the "YES" outcome for a specific higher threshold sits at 0%[1]. This pricing reflects the collective view of traders buying and selling conditional tokens on Polygon using USDC, where odds update in real-time as shares are exchanged[1].

Historical data frames how to interpret these probabilities, as July is Guangzhou’s hottest month with daily highs averaging around 33°C (91°F) and rarely falling below 85°F or exceeding 96°F[3][6]. The highest recorded temperature in July reaches approximately 39°C, though typical daytime highs cluster near 33°C, with the market’s leading outcomes for the preceding day (3 July) settling at 34°C[2][5]. Traders should note that recent on-chain activity shows the frontrunner for 3 July was 34°C at 100%, suggesting a consistent heatwave pattern that supports the current 30–31°C pricing for 4 July[2].

Key catalysts to watch include the official Wunderground release for the day’s maximum temperature and any updates from the UK Met Office regarding July 4 forecasts[1]. The settlement depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day at the specified station, available via the official history link[1]. Recent news from Xinhua News Agency confirms Guangzhou has experienced its longest summer since 1961, reinforcing the likelihood of sustained high temperatures that align with the market’s current probability distribution[8]. Traders must monitor the 12:00 UTC settlement window on 4 July 2026 for the final resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.