Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport high-temperature contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market is treating a qualifying July 27 reading as effectively absent. The contract settles against the day’s **highest temperature recorded** at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius, with holders of the relevant conditional tokens on Polygon and USDC standing or falling on the Wunderground day-history print rather than on a citywide average.

That zero price is easier to read against Guangzhou’s typical late-July heat, where daytime highs commonly sit in the **mid-30s Celsius**. A current 10-day forecast for Guangzhou shows unstable conditions and a projected high range of **33°C to 37°C**, which is consistent with a market that would normally have some chance of an upper-30s outcome, even if rainfall or cloud cover suppresses the peak. In other words, the present 0% implies traders are either discounting the airport station data path itself or assuming the market has already moved beyond the meaningful observation window, not that Guangzhou is a cold-weather outlier.

For traders, the practical catalysts are the same ones that usually move a weather market on settlement day: whether the airport station logs a late-afternoon maximum before the cutoff, whether showers or thunderstorms arrive early enough to cap the day’s peak, and whether the Wunderground history page updates cleanly for the station code ZGGG. In prediction-market terms, the relevant question is not abstract heat in the city, but whether the recorded station maximum lands inside the range mapped by the contract, so even a small change in the official station print can matter more than broader regional headlines.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.