Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. Polymarket currently prices all temperature bands at 0% YES, reflecting either insufficient liquidity or an expectation that resolution data will be unavailable at settlement. The market settles against Wunderground's historical weather archive for that specific station and date, with traders required to verify the Celsius reading via the platform's temperature toggle.

Guangzhou's July climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical highs typically ranging between 32–35°C during the month. The city experiences peak summer conditions driven by the East Asian summer monsoon, though occasional tropical systems can elevate temperatures further or introduce cloud cover that moderates peaks. Comparable July days at Baiyun Airport over the past decade show a narrow band of outcomes; extreme heat above 36°C occurs but remains uncommon, whilst readings below 31°C are rare enough to suggest significant weather disruption.

Traders monitoring this contract should track tropical cyclone forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration in early July 2026, as any system approaching Guangzhou would suppress daytime highs through cloud and precipitation. Conversely, a high-pressure system anchored over southern China would favour clear skies and stronger solar heating. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 21 July, giving traders until noon to observe whether Wunderground's archive has populated with the day's final readings before conditional tokens resolve.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.