Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will determine whether this Polymarket contract resolves YES or NO. Today, the market prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying traders believe the temperature will fall outside the defined range. This pricing reflects a stark disconnect from historical patterns, where July is consistently Guangzhou’s hottest month, with daily highs averaging 33°C and rarely dipping below 29°C [1][2].

Historical data shows July highs in Guangzhou typically cluster around 33°C, occasionally reaching 39°C during extreme heatwaves [2][4]. In 2023, China recorded its hottest July on record since 1961, with Guangzhou experiencing prolonged summer conditions and record-breaking average temperatures [5][7]. Given this trend, a 0% probability for a high-temperature outcome appears inconsistent with climatic norms, suggesting either a mispriced range or a specific threshold that excludes plausible July highs.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in local weather forecasts or heat advisories from Chinese meteorological authorities [8]. While no specific announcements are scheduled for 10 July, regional heatwave declarations or infrastructure-related temperature anomalies could act as catalysts. The contract settles on Polygon using USDC, with conditional tokens locking positions until the 2026-07-10T12:00:00Z cutoff, making timely data verification critical for accurate positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.