Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 1 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this weather contract, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance for the “YES” outcome. On Polymarket, the frontrunner is 35°C at 38%, followed by 36°C at 25%, reflecting strong on-chain confidence in high summer heat. Traders settle in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, where liquidity and price movements directly mirror real-time weather expectations.

Historical data frames this probability sharply: July is one of Guangzhou’s hottest months, with daily highs averaging 91°F (33°C), rarely dipping below 85°F (29°C) [2][6]. The all-time record for the city is 39.1°C, recorded on 1 July 2004, exactly the date in question [4]. Recent years show a warming trend, with 2024 marking China’s hottest month in recent history, averaging 23.21°C [5]. In 2023, Guangzhou broke a 30-year heat record, with summer temperatures 1.76°C above the 1991–2020 average [3].

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from the China Meteorological Administration and Wunderground updates for the Baiyun station, as real-time readings will drive price shifts before settlement on 1 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC. Any official announcements on extreme heat warnings or typhoon activity could alter temperature trajectories. Reuters reported in August 2024 that national temperatures were eclipsing prior records, suggesting continued volatility in summer heat patterns [5]. With humidity at 82% and rainfall averaging 233mm in July, cloud cover may suppress peak temperatures, but the baseline remains firmly in the 35–36°C range [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.