Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Guangzhou 5 August contract as a near-certain miss today, with the crowd assigning **0%** to the blanket “YES” framing while the live outcome ladder remains concentrated around the mid-30s Celsius. For a user holding USDC on Polygon, the practical question is not whether Guangzhou will be hot in general, but which conditional token settles against the highest reading recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport before the market’s window closes.

That zero-centiment sits awkwardly against the local climate baseline. August is normally one of Guangzhou’s hottest, stickiest months, with average highs around 33–34°C and frequent showers or thunderstorms that can either suppress or briefly spike the day’s top reading. Recent forecast pages for 5 August point to highs in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, while the market’s own ladder shows the crowd clustering around 34–35°C rather than any extreme tail outcome. Historical August data for Guangzhou also suggests that a high in the mid-30s is routine enough to keep the upper brackets live, but not so routine that the exact station reading is trivial.

The main catalyst for traders is the intraday weather set-up: cloud cover, convective rain bands, and the timing of afternoon storms can all decide whether the airport station tops out early or squeezes a little higher later in the day. Given the resolution source is Wunderground’s daily record for Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, traders should watch updated airport-hourly observations and whether a later data point revises the day’s maximum before the next day’s first published reading fixes the result.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.