Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this Guangzhou temperature contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market is treating a highest reading in the relevant Celsius band as effectively unwaged through the USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional token structure. The event itself is straightforward: the question resolves off the **highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station on 4 August 2026**, using Wunderground’s daily history page.

That zero price looks aggressive against the broader seasonal backdrop. Guangzhou’s August climate is normally hot and humid, with average highs around **91°F/33°C** and frequent rain, while several forecast providers still point to highs in the low 30s Celsius for early August[1][11][12]. Recent official forecasts have also shown Guangzhou in the **25–31°C** range with rain, which keeps the focus on whether the airport station can spike into a hotter band before clouds and showers cap the day’s maximum[8]. In comparable summer weather, the market is usually driven less by average conditions than by whether a brief midday heat burst lands in the exact settlement band.

For traders, the main catalysts are the same things that move any airport-temperature print: updated local forecasts, timing of showers, and any shift in cloud cover or wind that affects daytime heating. Guangzhou sits in peak monsoon season, so short, heavy rain can suppress highs even when the broader air mass is warm[10][14][18]. The relevant checkpoint is the live airport observation and intraday forecast path into the settlement window, not just the morning reading, because the contract resolves to the day’s **maximum** temperature rather than the temperature at a fixed time[6][13].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.