Highest temperature in Dallas on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, with traders on Polymarket currently pricing all outcomes at 0% YES across the board. This reflects the market's inability to price a future weather event with meaningful conviction at this distance—roughly eighteen months out—rather than any genuine uncertainty about whether Dallas will record a temperature that day. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical data feed for the Love Field Station, a standard National Weather Service observation point, making the resolution source straightforward once the date arrives.

Dallas summer temperatures are remarkably consistent. July highs at Love Field typically cluster between 93°F and 97°F, with the station's all-time July record standing at 103°F set in 1980. The past decade shows only three July days exceeding 100°F in Dallas, suggesting extreme heat remains the tail outcome rather than the baseline expectation. Historical volatility around this metric is modest; traders should treat the current flat pricing as a reflection of temporal distance rather than genuine equiprobability across temperature bands.

The primary catalyst affecting this market's eventual resolution will be the broader climate pattern establishing itself across the southern United States in mid-to-late July 2026. Seasonal forecasting models, typically reliable only 10–14 days in advance, will become actionable only in early July. Traders monitoring this contract should watch for any significant shifts in long-range climate outlooks issued by NOAA or the UK Met Office in spring 2026, though such forecasts carry substantial uncertainty at this horizon.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Dallas on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.