Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The current Polymarket pricing reflects 0% probability across all temperature brackets, a technical artefact of how conditional tokens settle when no traders have yet committed capital to any outcome. This absence of pricing does not indicate uncertainty about whether Dallas will record a temperature that day—it indicates the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds on the specific ranges.

Dallas's July climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from Love Field shows that peak temperatures in mid-July typically cluster between 93°F and 98°F, with readings above 100°F occurring in roughly one year per decade during particularly severe heat waves. The 30-year average high for 13 July sits near 96°F. Traders evaluating this contract should reference Wunderground's historical archive for 13 July across prior years to calibrate expectations; the settlement mechanism ties directly to that platform's recorded data, making historical comparisons the primary analytical tool.

The National Weather Service issues extended forecasts approximately ten days ahead, with meaningful refinement occurring five to seven days before the target date. Traders should monitor late June and early July atmospheric patterns—specifically whether a high-pressure system establishes itself over Texas or whether moisture-laden Gulf air intrudes northward. El Niño or La Niña conditions, updated quarterly by NOAA, influence summer heat patterns across the south-central United States. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, requiring resolution data to be available on Wunderground by that deadline.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.