Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field recorded a high of 98–99°F on 11 July 2026, setting a hot baseline for the following day’s settlement. Historical July data for the station shows average highs near 94°F, yet recent years frequently breach 100°F, with 2022’s record at 100°F standing as a key comparator [4][6]. The current Polymarket contract prices the “94–95°F” range at 39%, with “92–93°F” at 28%, while the “89°F or below” outcome sits at 0%—reflecting the market’s dismissal of a cold snap given the immediate thermal momentum [1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day outlook, which currently forecasts a high of 95°F for 12 July with a 50% chance of thunderstorms that could suppress peak temperatures [3]. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s official daily high for KDAL, so any discrepancy between forecast models and real-time station data will drive on-chain USDC flows on Polygon as conditional tokens adjust [1][8]. With the market implying near-zero probability for temperatures under 89°F, the key catalyst is whether storm coverage materialises before midday UTC, potentially capping the high below the frontrunner range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.