Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Dallas temperature contract at **0% YES** for the 9 August reading, which means the market is treating the specified outcome range as effectively ruled out on current information. Because settlement uses USDC on Polygon and the winning range is redeemed through conditional tokens, the practical question for traders is not whether Dallas was hot in general, but whether the *Weather Underground Daily Observations* entry for Dallas Love Field lands inside the relevant Fahrenheit band before the resolution cutoff. Polymarket’s own market page says the source is Weather Underground’s daily history for KDAL and that later revisions only count until the first datapoint for the following date appears.[2]

Comparable temperature markets in North Texas usually settle around the day’s official observed maximum rather than headline forecast highs, and the source choice matters here. On the resolution page, Polymarket notes that traders had already converged on a 98–99°F outcome for the broader Dallas area, with the official maximum at DFW reported as 98–99°F, while other weather pages for the same date showed highs near 99–100°F.[2][7][8] That makes a zero-priced position in the market’s target bucket easier to read as a source-specific judgement: traders appear to expect the Love Field observation to sit outside the named band, even if nearby stations posted very warm readings.[1][2]

The main catalysts are straightforward: the final Weather Underground daily record for KDAL, any late-day temperature peak before the daily archive rolls over, and whether the station’s observations are revised before the next day’s first datapoint is published.[2][5] The National Weather Service forecast for the Dallas area showed warm, largely stable conditions around the date, which supports an elevated temperature regime but does not determine the settlement source.[4] For a Polymarket user, that means the live price should be watched against the station-level archive, not against citywide forecasts or airport summaries, because the contract settles on the exact Wunderground daily-observation maximum.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.