Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing on 2 July 2026 is entering its peak summer heat, with July historically the hottest month and average highs around 33°C, often soaring to 35°C or higher amid intense humidity and urban heat island effects[1][2]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any temperature range above a specific threshold on Polymarket appears starkly low when weighed against climate records showing daytime highs frequently reaching 43°C and perceived temperatures feeling like 109°F due to moisture and city density[4][5]. This market resolves via conditional tokens on the Polygon network, settling in USDC based on Wunderground’s official daily maximum for the Jiangbei International Airport station, making the on-chain price a direct reflection of real-world thermal extremes rather than abstract speculation[6].

Historically, Chongqing’s summer from June to August is marked by a rainy season that rarely dampens the scorching heat, with temperatures consistently lingering between 25°C and 35°C and occasionally breaching 43°C[2][4]. Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts and any sudden shifts in monsoon patterns that could alter humidity levels, as these are the primary catalysts for temperature spikes in this region[7]. Recent reports confirm Chongqing remains one of China’s “Four Furnaces,” where extreme heat above 35°C is common, suggesting the 0% probability may be a mispricing of the underlying event rather than a rational assessment of risk[7]. No moralising is needed; the facts show the on-chain price diverges significantly from the meteorological reality, leaving conditional token holders exposed to a high likelihood of settlement in the upper temperature ranges.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.