Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s Jiangbei International Airport is expected to record its peak temperature for 17 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance that the highest reading will fall outside the defined ranges. On Polymarket, this contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where conditional tokens reflect the crowd’s view that no single temperature range has yet gained decisive traction. The frontrunner is 34°C at 21%, closely followed by 33°C at 20%, suggesting traders are hedging across the mid-30s bracket rather than betting on extremes [1].

Historically, Chongqing in mid-July routinely sees highs between 32°C and 36°C, with 34°C being a frequent peak at the Jiangbei station. The current 0% YES probability for any specific range likely reflects early-stage uncertainty rather than a belief that temperatures will be unusually low; comparable July days in recent years have consistently hit 33–35°C, making the 34°C frontrunner a statistically grounded anchor [1][2].

Traders should monitor hourly updates from Wunderground’s daily history page for ZUCK, the official resolution source, as real-time data will determine settlement. No scheduled weather announcements are expected before the 12:00 UTC settlement window, but sudden shifts in cloud cover or monsoon activity could alter the peak. With the market still thin, liquidity and price swings may remain volatile until the final hours of trading [1].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.