Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Chongqing temperature contract at **0% YES** right now, which means the market is saying there is effectively no chance that the day’s high at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station will land in the YES range. The event itself is straightforward: the contract settles on the temperature band containing the **highest recorded Celsius temperature** at that station on 3 August, with resolution taken from Wunderground’s daily history page and the market held in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens.[1]

For context, Chongqing in August is normally a hot, humid market, with published climate guides putting typical highs around **34°C** and listing **34.7°C** as the average high for 3 August in one August climate table.[2][9] That makes the current 0% pricing stand out as a very strong view, because the distribution of likely outcomes is usually clustered around the low-to-mid 30s rather than extreme spikes. Even so, the city’s historical ceiling is much higher: one weather history source records an all-time high of **43°C** in Chongqing on 23 August 2022, showing that unusually hot prints are possible in this region.[3]

A trader watching this market would focus on the same practical drivers that move the actual airport reading: overnight cloud cover, afternoon sun, rainfall timing, and whether any local weather systems suppress daytime heating before the settlement window closes at **12:00 UTC**. Because resolution depends on the airport station’s recorded maximum on the day, the relevant question is not broad city weather but the specific surface observation that Wunderground publishes for that station.[1] With only a small amount of volume showing on Polymarket, pricing may still be thin and sensitive to new forecast updates rather than settled consensus.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.