Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the **highest temperature in Chongqing on 10 August** through USDC-backed conditional tokens on Polygon, and the current crowd-implied probability is **0% YES**, which implies the market is not assigning value to any listed temperature band as of now. The contract resolves off the **Daily Observations** table for Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, not the summary “Day High & Low” figure, so traders should focus on the station record rather than app-level headline weather displays.

For context, August is Chongqing’s hottest month in most climatologies, with average highs around **33–34°C** and frequent very hot afternoons, while historical extremes have reached **41–43°C** in recent years.[1][2][3][5] That matters because the market’s temperature bands are tight: a one-degree shift can move settlement between adjacent outcomes. Early-August reference data from travel and weather-history sources shows day highs clustering around **34°C**, which makes the upper-30s outcomes dependent on a sharper heat spike than the seasonal norm.[1][4][17]

The main trader watchlist is straightforward: the airport station’s hourly observations on Weather Underground, any late-day convective rain or cloud cover, and whether the day’s peak occurs before or after local afternoon heating. Chongqing’s August weather is often humid and rainy as well as hot, so a brief shower can cap the maximum even if the day starts strongly.[1][11][17] Because settlement uses the recorded station maximum, not forecast graphics, the practical catalyst is the exact observation series that appears during the local daytime trading window and any revision to the Daily Observations table before market close.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.