Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20?

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Market context

Polymarket’s contract on Chengdu’s highest temperature is trading at **0% YES**, which means the market is currently pricing almost no chance that the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station posts a reading that lands in the YES range before the settlement window closes. The position is collateralised in **USDC** and settles through **Polygon**-based conditional tokens, so the relevant question for users is whether the day’s maximum at the designated station reaches the specified Celsius band, not whether Chengdu simply feels hot by local standards.

That zero price is best read against Chengdu’s June climate rather than an isolated summer headline. June highs are usually in the low 30s Celsius, with average daily highs around 28–34°C and rare spikes above 35°C, while some June guides note occasional mid-to-late-month days reaching 35–39°C[1][2][4]. The market therefore sits far below the kind of outcome that has historically been needed for a true extreme-temperature print, which is why a 0% bid typically reflects either a very narrow target band or an expectation that the station’s recorded maximum will stay inside more ordinary summer ranges[3][7].

What traders should watch is the **actual airport-station observation series** on Wunderground, not city-wide forecasts or headline weather commentary, because settlement depends on the highest reading recorded there on the day[3]. In practical terms, the main catalysts are any late-day heat build-up, cloud cover or rainfall that suppresses the afternoon peak, and changes in local synoptic conditions that can move the station’s maximum by a few degrees; once the day’s heating cycle passes, the contract becomes increasingly about whether the existing high can still be overtaken[1][2][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.