Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will record its highest temperature on 25 July 2026 at Shuangliu International Airport Station, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature brackets, reflecting either sparse liquidity or traders' genuine uncertainty about which range will resolve. On Polymarket, this contract trades as conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, with the settlement window closing at midday UTC on the resolution date itself—a tight window that leaves little room for post-event trading adjustments.

Chengdu's July climate sits firmly within its summer peak, when daily highs typically range between 28–35°C. Historical records from the past five years show the city rarely exceeds 37°C in late July, though the 2013 heat wave pushed temperatures to 40°C during an exceptional atmospheric pattern. The 0% pricing suggests either that no bracket has attracted sufficient backing to establish a floor, or that traders are waiting for seasonal forecasts to crystallise before committing capital. Comparable July settlements at other Chinese airport stations have resolved across the 30–36°C bands with regularity, making extreme outliers (sub-25°C or above 38°C) statistical outliers rather than base cases.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China's meteorological forecasts released in early July 2026, particularly any alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heat domes or monsoon disruption. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 will influence atmospheric stability across central China. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's archive data, so confirming the station's operational status and data quality ahead of the date matters; airport weather stations occasionally experience outages or sensor recalibration.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.