Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES** right now, so the market is pricing virtually no chance that Chengdu’s airport station posts a hottest temperature falling into the YES range today. On Polymarket, traders are buying and selling USDC-backed conditional tokens on Polygon, so the quoted price is the market’s live consensus rather than a direct forecast from any single model.

For context, July in Chengdu is typically hot, humid and rain-affected, with average highs around 30°C and frequent showers, which can cap extremes even when daytime heat builds.[3] Current weather snapshots for Chengdu also show mid-20s Celsius conditions and elevated humidity, while short-range forecast pages point to unsettled weather rather than a clean, sustained heat surge.[2][4] For a highs market settled off the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, that matters more than citywide averages: a single late-afternoon shower, cloud build-up or wind shift can leave the day’s maximum well below broader seasonal norms.[1][3]

A trader watching the tape should focus on anything that changes the intraday temperature profile before the station’s daily maximum is locked in: radar and nowcasts, any local convective rainfall, and the timing of peak sunshine versus cloud cover. The key dependency is the resolution feed itself, because the market settles on the highest temperature recorded on Wunderground for that airport station, not on the city forecast headline.[1] With settlement tied to the day’s recorded high, the main driver is the actual observed weather window through the afternoon and early evening, when Chengdu’s peak is most likely to form.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.