Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s highest temperature on 20 July 2026 is the real-world event determining this market’s outcome, with the contract currently pricing a 0% chance that the temperature falls outside the 38°C range. On Polymarket, traders are using USDC on the Polygon network to buy conditional tokens, and the frontrunner outcome of 38°C already commands 100% implied probability, leaving no room for alternative ranges like 34°C or below [1]. This extreme consensus reflects how on-chain mechanics amplify early conviction, locking liquidity into a single temperature bracket before the settlement window closes on 2026-07-20T12:00:00Z.

Historically, Chengdu’s July highs regularly exceed 35°C, with 38°C representing a plausible peak during the city’s hot, humid summer season [3]. Climate data for July in Sichuan shows consistent daytime temperatures in the mid-to-high 30s, making 38°C a credible upper bound rather than an outlier, which aligns with the market’s near-total confidence in this outcome [2]. The 0% probability assigned to lower ranges suggests traders view any deviation below 38°C as statistically negligible based on past weather patterns in the region.

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, the official resolution source, as real-time temperature readings will confirm or contradict the 38°C consensus [1]. While no specific weather announcements are scheduled, the rainy season in July can introduce sudden cloud cover or precipitation that might temporarily suppress peaks, though such events rarely prevent highs from reaching 38°C in Chengdu’s summer [3]. Any significant deviation from the forecasted heat would likely trigger rapid token rebalancing on the Polygon chain as conditional prices adjust to new data.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.