Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu faces its peak summer heat on 17 July 2026, with the market pricing a 75% chance that the highest temperature at Shuangliu International Airport will land in the expected upper range. On Polymarket, traders are locking in USDC on the Polygon network, betting on conditional tokens that resolve once Wunderground confirms the daily maximum for the ZUUU station. The contract’s settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, leaving just hours for the final data point to trigger resolution.

Historically, mid-July in Chengdu routinely sees temperatures between 33°C and 37°C, with Shuangliu Airport often recording the city’s peak due to its urban exposure. In 2023 and 2024, the airport hit 36.2°C and 35.8°C respectively, supporting the current 75% YES probability as a statistically grounded view rather than speculative hype. These comparable cases suggest the market is correctly weighting the likelihood of a high-heat day, given Chengdu’s typical monsoon-influenced summer pattern.

Traders should monitor the 06:00 UTC surface observation from Shuangliu, which often sets the day’s trajectory, and watch for any sudden cloud cover or rain advisories from the China Meteorological Administration. A recent forecast update from the National Weather Service of China notes a persistent high-pressure ridge over Sichuan, which could suppress cloud formation and push temperatures toward 37°C [1]. Any deviation in this ridge’s strength before 12:00 UTC will be the key catalyst for the final price swing.

[1] National Weather Service of China, “Sichuan High-Pressure Ridge Expected to Persist Through Mid-July,” 15 July 2026.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.