Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will experience its peak July heat today at the Shuangliu International Airport Station, with the market betting on which Celsius range captures that maximum. Polymarket prices the YES contract at 0% implied probability, suggesting the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range offered, likely due to the extreme heat typical of mid-July in this region.

Historically, Chengdu’s July highs frequently exceed 35°C, often reaching 37–39°C, making a 0% probability for a lower range unusual unless the market targets an unusually high bracket. Comparable cases from 2022 and 2023 show consistent peaks above 36°C at ZUUU, framing the current pricing as potentially misaligned with seasonal norms unless the range is set above 40°C.

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the Shuangliu station, as settlement relies exclusively on its recorded daily maximum. No formal announcements or schedules affect this outcome, but sudden shifts in monsoon activity or urban heatwave advisories could alter the peak. A recent report from the China Meteorological Administration notes that Sichuan Province is under a high-temperature warning, reinforcing expectations of extreme heat [1].

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.