Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is entering its peak summer heatwave, with July typically delivering fuggy conditions where temperatures can climb to 38°C. The prediction market for the highest temperature on 11 July 2026 currently prices the YES outcome at 0%, suggesting the crowd expects the reading to fall outside the specific range offered. This stark pricing contrasts with historical climatology, where mid-July often sees daily highs between 28°C and 30°C, though extreme spikes to 38°C are documented in recent years [3][4].

Historical data frames this 0% probability as potentially misaligned with seasonal volatility. Chengdu recorded a peak of 38.6°C on 23 August 2022, and temperatures exceeding 40°C have hit large parts of China since 11 July in record heat years [6][9]. A similar market on 6 July 2026 resolved correctly at 37°C, indicating that the region can sustain extreme heat well into early summer [10]. The current pricing may ignore the precedent of July 2026 being China’s hottest month on record, where 40°C+ days became frequent [6].

Traders should monitor real-time data from the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station via Wunderground, the designated resolution source [8]. Key catalysts include the China Meteorological Administration’s daily heat alerts and any sudden shifts in the monsoon pattern that could suppress or amplify temperatures. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 11 July, the on-chain mechanics on Polygon using USDC will lock in the final conditional token distribution once the official Wunderground reading confirms the exact degree range [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.