Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **0% YES** on Chengdu’s highest temperature on 6 August, with the contract settled in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the market is effectively saying there is no meaningful chance of a top-end reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport today. The resolution will come from Wunderground’s daily history page for that station, using the day’s highest recorded Celsius temperature within the market’s settlement window, so traders are watching the airport observation rather than a citywide average.

That near-zero price sits against a climate backdrop that does not support an outright cold-day read. August in Chengdu is typically hot and humid, with long-run guidance clustering around the low 30s Celsius and frequent rainfall, while forecast sources for early August 2026 have pointed to highs in the low-to-mid 30s and rain showers rather than a cool, stable air mass.[1][5][6][9] Wunderground’s own historical framing for the station is what matters here: if the airport manages even a brief warm-up between showers, the printed high can still land in a higher bucket than the market is implying.

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s airport observations, the timing of afternoon heating, and whether cloud cover or precipitation suppresses the maximum before the settlement cut-off. Chengdu’s current weather reports show warm, humid conditions in the city, and official city forecasts have placed Chengdu at 21-35°C with rain for 6 August, which is consistent with a market that can move if the morning starts mild but clears later.[12][15][9] On Polymarket, any shift comes through buying or selling USDC exposure in the relevant conditional token outcome as fresh readings accumulate, so the practical watchpoint is not just the forecast but the highest official airport temperature that actually prints before resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

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