Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Chengdu temperature contract at **0% YES** today, even though the live market still has to clear a very ordinary late-summer hurdle: the day’s **highest** reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station on 4 August. On-chain, the position settles in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the payoff turns entirely on which temperature band Wunderground records for the station before the resolution window closes.

That zero price looks aggressive against Chengdu’s August climatology. Nearby forecast pages point to early-August highs around **32°C** with patchy rain and humid conditions, while broader guides put Chengdu’s August daytime maximums in the **30–34°C** range, with averages near **30°C** and frequent showers.[1][2][5][11][13] The current market page itself shows traders clustering around the mid-30s bands, with **34°C** leading and **35°C** close behind, which is consistent with a city that often reaches the low-to-mid 30s before convective rain or cloud cover limits the top end.[14]

For traders, the key catalysts are the **same-day forecast updates**, especially any shift in afternoon thunderstorm timing, cloud cover, or humidity, because those directly affect whether the airport station prints 32–34°C or pushes higher. The market description also matters operationally: resolution depends on the Wunderground daily history page for the airport station, and Polymarket notes that revisions inside the market window can still count until the first datapoint for the following date is published.[14][15] In practical terms, the contract is less about a broad Chengdu weather outlook and more about a single station’s final afternoon maximum.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.