Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will determine this market's resolution. The contract settles against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when automated stations report sub-hourly peaks. Polymarket currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% YES, reflecting either thin liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will capture the day's maximum reading.

Chengdu's August climate presents a consistent baseline: the city sits in Sichuan Province's humid subtropical zone, where mid-August highs typically range between 28–35°C, with occasional excursions above 36°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past five years shows that extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 38°C—occur roughly once every two to three years in August, whilst readings below 28°C are rare. The airport station's elevation and urban heat island effects mean recorded temperatures often exceed city-centre readings by 1–2°C. Understanding whether 14 August falls during a regional heat wave or a cooler monsoon-influenced period will substantially shift which range traders should favour.

China's meteorological service issues seasonal forecasts and heat alerts through July and early August; traders should monitor official advisories from the China Meteorological Administration for any warnings about prolonged high-pressure systems over central China. Additionally, the East Asian summer monsoon's strength in early August influences Sichuan's weather patterns significantly. Any major weather announcements between now and mid-August could shift market pricing, particularly if forecasters signal an unusually hot or cool spell for that specific week.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.