Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will determine this market's settlement. The contract currently trades at 0% implied probability across Polymarket's USDC liquidity pools on Polygon, suggesting traders assign negligible chance to the specific temperature range this market covers. Resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when intraday spikes occur between official recording intervals.

Chengdu's August climate presents a baseline for calibration. The city experiences peak summer heat in early August, with historical highs typically ranging from 32°C to 36°C, though extremes occasionally breach 37°C. The 2013 heatwave pushed readings to 40.2°C, an outlier that illustrates tail-risk territory. Most years see August highs cluster between 33°C and 35°C at the airport station. Current market pricing at zero suggests traders expect the settlement range to fall outside historical norms or that liquidity concentrates entirely in adjacent brackets.

Weather forecasting accuracy for single-day temperature maxima extends reliably only 10–14 days forward. As August 2026 approaches, traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration updates and any El Niño or monsoon pattern shifts affecting the Sichuan Basin. Atmospheric pressure systems tracking across central China in early August will drive whether conditions favour typical summer heat or anomalous extremes. The specificity of airport-station measurement—versus urban heat-island effects in central Chengdu—means microclimate factors at Shuangliu matter for marginal cases near range boundaries.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.