Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this Chengdu temperature contract priced at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying the airport’s highest reading on 1 August is currently viewed as landing outside the relevant temperature band. The settlement point is the **day’s maximum at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station** on Wunderground, and users holding positions are exposed through **USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon**, so the practical question is whether the observed peak ends up in the contract’s target range rather than whether Chengdu is simply warm in general.

For context, August is normally Chengdu’s hottest month, with typical highs around **29.8–31°C** and average daily highs near **87°F**; several climate sources also place the month’s record highs well above 35°C, with some historical August extremes above **40°C** in the broader city record. That matters because a 0% price can still be consistent with an expectation of a very hot day if the market band is narrower than the broader summer range, or if traders think the airport station will stay just below the threshold implied by the contract.

What to watch is the day’s intraday heat profile rather than the headline forecast: the highest reading can arrive late morning or mid-afternoon, and clouds, rain bands, or thunderstorm outflows can clip the peak even after a hot start. Chengdu’s August climate is also notably humid and rainfall-prone, with around **10–13 inches** of monthly precipitation cited across the sources, so short-term convective weather is the main dependency for any move away from a simple hot-day outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.