Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, Cape Town International Airport will record its peak temperature for the day, a single data point that determines settlement for a Polymarket contract priced in USDC on the Polygon network. Today, the market assigns a 0% probability to the “YES” outcome for any temperature exceeding the implied threshold, reflecting a collective belief that extreme heat is virtually impossible in mid-winter. The leading outcome is 17°C at 34%, closely followed by 18°C at 33%, indicating traders expect typical winter highs rather than anomalies [2].

Historical data frames this tight probability distribution firmly. July is Cape Town’s coldest month, with daily highs averaging 63°F (17°C) and rarely exceeding 72°F (22°C) [1]. While the airport recorded a record-breaking 30.3°C in July 2024—the hottest July day since records began in 1969—such extremes are statistical outliers rather than norms [9]. The current 0% pricing aligns with the decade-long average, suggesting the market views the 2024 spike as an isolated event unlikely to repeat in 2026.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source for the Cape Town International Airport Station, as final settlement depends entirely on this dataset [2]. No specific weather announcements are scheduled, but the standard dependency is the daily high temperature reported after noon, when peaks typically occur [8]. Given the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, the market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded for all times on that day, with no further catalysts expected beyond the natural progression of the weather event itself.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.