Highest temperature in Busan on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Busan heat contract at **0% YES** today, even though settlement will be based on the **highest temperature recorded at Gimhae Intl Airport Station on 1 August 2026** and paid out via the usual **USDC on Polygon** conditional-token structure. With the market already pinned at zero, buyers are effectively saying the day will stay in the lowest temperature band on the exchange’s resolution grid, not just finish a bit cooler than average.

That is a strong call against the local climate profile. Busan’s August climate is normally hot and humid, with average highs around **28–30°C** and typical August highs near **29°C**; some sources place the month’s average high at **84–87°F** and the average low around **74–76°F**.[2][3][13][15] Historical summaries also show that Busan can still produce much hotter spikes in August, with warmest-day readings around **34.5°C** and a reported August record high of **38°C** in one climate dataset, so a zero-price contract is only easy to justify if traders think today’s airport reading will remain well below the upper buckets.[16][14]

The main catalysts are the **hour-by-hour evolution of Busan weather today**, any **rain bands or thunderstorm development**, and whether sea-breeze moderation keeps the airport below the thresholds used in the market’s temperature ranges. At 9 a.m. UTC, the relevant live check is whether the Gimhae airport maximum is still likely to be set by midday local time, because the market settles on the day’s *highest* observed temperature rather than an afternoon average. Traders watching the order book will therefore care less about the morning reading itself than about whether humidity, cloud cover, or convective showers cap the day before the station posts a higher afternoon maximum.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Busan on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.